Texas has seen important reductions in uninsurance since the implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, driven by enrollment in subsidized Marketplace plans. At the end of 2025, subsidies that have made this coverage more affordable for millions since 2021 are set to expire. In this brief, we discuss the important role Marketplace plays in the Texas health insurance market. A large population, high uninsured rate, and heavy reliance on Marketplace coverage mean that subsidy expiration could reverse years of progress in expanding health insurance coverage, potentially leaving hundreds of thousands of Texans without affordable coverage options and creating increased financial instability for the state’s healthcare system. Our estimates suggest that between 665,000 and 1.45 million Marketplace enrollees will not continue individual Marketplace coverage in Texas in 2026, representing declines of 17- 37% from 2025. These losses in Marketplace coverage translate to up to 797,747 newly uninsured people, implying increases in the uninsurance rate for nonelderly Texans of 1.5-3.2 percentage points.